Why Ted Cruz Will Win the Iowa Caucus, and Trump Will Come in Third

By Matthew Rix - Patriot Insight

After the Iowa Caucus is in the books and Trump comes in third place, I know the first thought that will come in the mind of Trump supporters is that there was some establishment corruption to allow Ted Cruz to win.

I'm going to beat the pundits to the punch on their "excellent analysis" the morning after the Iowa Caucus.

The reason Trump will come in third place in Iowa is for the following reasons:

1. Ted Cruz has a very impressive ground game in Iowa. Every county has excited volunteers that are just waiting to drive grandma to the local caucus. Rubio has a decent ground game, but he needs to show up more in Iowa. Word from several campaigns in Iowa is that Trump has little to no ground game in Iowa. He also isn't doing "retail politics" that for some reason the people of Iowa believe they are entitled to.

2. A caucus is very different from a Primary.

In a primary you go into a voting boot, vote for your guy, and head home to watch the results. A caucus is done in churches, living rooms, etc.

The way a caucus runs is that you take a real live vote, people vote in front of their friends, and then they tally up the votes. After they have announced the results from that caucus they then have time to start picking people off to come side with their candidate. This is where the Cruz ground game will come in to play big time. Your pastor, neighbor, or friend will start to convince you on all the reasons their guy is better than your guy. Then they take another vote.

3. The biggest Trump downfall is Trump supporters.

Trump supporters have emotions, but not much else. The over the top insulting everyone that doesn't agree with you is fine on Twitter (for some), but terrible in person. They will not get a huge net gain during the deliberation time because to the rest of the country Trump supporters are nuts. Sorry but it's the truth. Cruz & Rubio supporters will be able to effectively communicate with Iowans to sway people to their side.

4. Polls

Trump supporters act like polls have never been wrong.

2012 Romney was suppose to win by 4-6 points.

2014 GOP was only going to pick up 3-5 seats, they picked up almost 10. Polls didn't see Illinois going Republican at all.

2015 Louisiana governor was going to be a republican. It's a democrat. Kentucky was suppose to be a democrat, it's a republican.

Most polls are complete crap. Here is why:

Most polls are conducted by automation. Someone calls you and an automated voice tells you to press 1 for Democrat, 2 for Republican. There is no telling if these people have intentions in voting or even voting in the caucus they claim to be voting in.

Secondly, Polling companies call landlines. Who has a landline? Rural areas, and older people. Younger people are not lining up to vote for Trump, so they're not even in the mix for polling. Cruz & Rubio supporters are younger, more tech savvy, more metropolitan and less likely to have a landline.

Third, online polls are useless. Most people vote for their candidate more than once on an online poll, and unless this is the democrats of the 1960's that will not work for the Iowa caucus.

4. Trump is an entertainer.

It's fun to watch Trump entertain us, but most of us do not want that for four years, or have his finger on the button.

So as the holidays wrap up and football comes to a close, Iowa will start to pay a lot more attention to what is about to happen. That is when they will start talking to their neighbors, researching on the candidates, looking into the candidates history (not a plus for Trump), and will make their final decision.

That's why Ted Cruz will win the Iowa Caucus by 4-8 points, Marco Rubio will come in second, Trump will come in a close third, and Ben Carson will be in a distant fourth place.

It won't be a conspiracy by the establishment to let Ted Cruz win, the establishment hates Ted Cruz more than they do Trump.

Trump, who wrote the art of the deal, just won't be able to close the Iowa deal.

Find Matthew Rix on Twitter @TheRixReport. Starting in January The Rix Report on PatriotInsight.com

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Cruzzin Past Trump in Iowa

Big news this Sunday morning as it looks like Trump is not as infallible as many think he is.  Thus far I have been looking at the GOP field and giving everyone an equal shot in my eyes to win the Republican nomination for the president.  Too many people are buying into what is being fed to them via the mainstream media and are getting caught up in the hoopla that same media has created as they hang on every word Trump says.  I'll be the first to say that when Trump appears to screw up, somehow it only strengthens his stance in the polls and that just adds to is already over inflated ego.

Just a few examples of Trumps debacles...



In this particular instance we see Donald Trump literally mock handicapped individuals as he speaks about the Muslims that were celebrating in Jersey City, NJ shortly after the 9/11 attacks.  While his claim was later confirmed as video had surfaced showing the individuals indeed were celebrating, the problem is how Trump went about explaining this incident.  Do we really want an individual like this, who possesses such lack of couth, as the leader of the free world and one who will represent us around the world.

Again we see Trump on his high horse and this time he is literally mocking and belittling a fellow candidate.  In this instance it is about respect, or lack thereof, from an individual who has his sights on the highest office in this country.  When I look for someone who I would back as president of the United States, I look for someone who commands respect; not someone who tosses around names and acts like a child when he doesn't get his way.  After all we are now seeing Trump threatening that he may actually run third party if the GOP doesn't start treating him fairly.  On what grounds can he speak about fair behavior when we see him mock handicapped people and belittle nearly every single individual vying for the GOP nomination to become president?

Along Comes Ted Cruz

While everyone was pandering over Trump and his recent statements about how he intends to keep Islamic terrorists from entering the United States, Texas Senator Ted Cruz was busy running a campaign rooted in fundamental principles on how he intends to implement his policies.

According to Brietbart,

Cruz has 31 percent support, followed by Donald Trump with 21 percent. Since October, Cruz has gained 21 points while Trump has gained just 2 percent. Neurosurgeon Ben Carson is in 3rd place with 13 percent, down 15 points since October. Florida

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) 79% is 4th with 10 percent support, essentially unchanged since the last poll.

Are people beginning to wake up to Trump and his antics?  This aforementioned pole is a fantastic indicator that people are fed up with Trump and his whining that if he isn’t treated fairly he’ll leave the party.  While that may strike fear into many traditional Republican voters, I feel that the core of the Republican party today stands on clear morals and values and they are able to see right through everything Trump says and understand there isn’t really any substance behind the rhetoric.

That substance that Trump lacks Cruz makes up for and a prime example of this is explained here,

There were two other campaign developments this week, however, that perhaps go even further to explain the strong support coalescing behind Cruz. On Thursday, Cruz gave a speech focused on foreign policy at the Heritage Foundation. Echoing Ronald Reagan and Jeanne Kirkpatrick, Cruz outlined a robust strategy to combat radical terrorism without miring the US in overseas conflicts.

This is what we need, in a candidate who can literally back up what he says with methods and policies depicting how he will carry out his plan. Ted Cruz understands the Constitution and the responsibility of holding the highest office in the land.  He doesn’t just speak on platitudes, he speaks about the issuing we face as a nation and provides detailed outlines of how he intends to address those issues .  The next time you see Trump on CNN, MSNBC, Good Morning America, Fox News, or anywhere else spouting off trying to keep himself in the limelight think to yourself, does this man really have a plan for this country or is he all talk?

-Young Conservative